{"id":4918,"date":"2026-06-10T22:13:19","date_gmt":"2026-06-10T22:13:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/catlec.cl\/?p=4918"},"modified":"2026-09-22T18:59:00","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T18:59:00","slug":"a-non-homogeneous-negative-binomial-autoregressive-model-for-forecasting-port-truck-arrivals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/catlec.cl\/en-us\/a-non-homogeneous-negative-binomial-autoregressive-model-for-forecasting-port-truck-arrivals\/","title":{"rendered":"A non-homogeneous negative binomial autoregressive model for forecasting port truck arrivals"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fecha:<\/strong> 29\/04\/2026<br><strong>Autores:<\/strong> Vicente&nbsp;Valenzuela-Riquelme&nbsp;<sup>a<\/sup>,&nbsp;Marcel&nbsp;Favereau&nbsp;<sup>bc<\/sup>,&nbsp;Carlos A.&nbsp;Monardes-Concha&nbsp;<sup>d<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>a<\/sup><strong>Universidad Andr\u00e9s Bello, Departament of Engineering Sciences<\/strong>, Antonio Varas 880, Providencia, 7500971, Santiago, Chile<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>b<\/sup><strong>Universidad de los Andes, Chile, Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda y Ciencias Aplicadas<\/strong>, Monse\u00f1or \u00c1lvaro del Portillo 12455, Las Condes, 8150513, Santiago, Chile<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>c<\/sup><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/catlec.cl\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"catlec.cl\">Center for Advanced Transportation, Logistics, and Economic Competitiveness (CATLEC)<\/a><\/strong>, ANID\/CIN 250061, Santiago, Chile<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>d<\/sup><strong>School of Engineering, Universidad Cat\u00f3lica del Norte<\/strong>, Larrondo 1281, Coquimbo, 1781421, Coquimbo Region, Chile<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><br><strong>Revista cient\u00edfica \/ editorial:<\/strong> Computers and Industrial Engineering<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Abstract o breve resumen:<\/strong> La predicci\u00f3n precisa de las llegadas diarias de camiones es crucial para optimizar las operaciones de log\u00edstica portuaria. Estas llegadas se suelen modelar como un proceso de conteo que presenta dos caracter\u00edsticas complejas: autocorrelaci\u00f3n y no estacionariedad. Los modelos autorregresivos se emplean com\u00fanmente para abordar la autocorrelaci\u00f3n, pero suelen asumir estacionariedad, lo que limita su capacidad para capturar din\u00e1micas no estacionarias. Por otro lado, el proceso de Poisson no homog\u00e9neo se utiliza habitualmente para modelar la no estacionariedad en los procesos de llegada. Sin embargo, no tiene en cuenta la autocorrelaci\u00f3n y es insuficiente para capturar la sobredispersi\u00f3n que se observa con frecuencia en los procesos de conteo reales. Para superar estas limitaciones, proponemos un nuevo modelo de predicci\u00f3n que integra un marco autorregresivo con una distribuci\u00f3n binomial negativa no homog\u00e9nea para modelar las llegadas diarias de camiones, capturando la autocorrelaci\u00f3n, la no estacionariedad y la sobredispersi\u00f3n. El enfoque propuesto genera predicciones mediante un modelo autorregresivo, que luego se transforman en realizaciones de la distribuci\u00f3n binomial negativa no homog\u00e9nea mediante el m\u00e9todo de transformaci\u00f3n inversa. Bas\u00e1ndose en datos reales de llegada diaria de camiones a un importante puerto chileno, el modelo propuesto se eval\u00faa compar\u00e1ndolo con modelos de referencia ya establecidos. Los resultados demuestran que el modelo propuesto alcanza una precisi\u00f3n de pron\u00f3stico puntual competitiva, a la vez que proporciona distribuciones predictivas sustancialmente m\u00e1s informativas y mejor calibradas, especialmente en t\u00e9rminos de nitidez del intervalo de predicci\u00f3n y equilibrio de la cobertura. Tambi\u00e9n se analizan las implicaciones m\u00e1s amplias para el modelado y la gesti\u00f3n pr\u00e1ctica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Enlace al documento o DOI:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.cie.2026.112066 \"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.cie.2026.112066<\/mark><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fecha: 29\/04\/2026Autores: Vicente&nbsp;Valenzuela-Riquelme&nbsp;a,&nbsp;Marcel&nbsp;Favereau&nbsp;bc,&nbsp;Carlos A.&nbsp;Monardes-Concha&nbsp;d aUniversidad Andr\u00e9s Bello, Departament of Engineering Sciences, Antonio Varas 880, Providencia, 7500971, Santiago, Chile bUniversidad de<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":4919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[87,50],"tags":[151,152],"class_list":["post-4918","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articulos-cientificos","category-publicaciones","tag-competitividad-logistica-nacional","tag-marcel-favereau"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A non-homogeneous negative binomial autoregressive model for forecasting port truck arrivals - CATLEC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Investigaci\u00f3n propone un modelo para el pron\u00f3stico de llegada de camiones a puertos y mejorar la planificaci\u00f3n log\u00edstica portuaria.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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